The final week of the NFL preseason is upon us, and the Steelers and Falcons will kick off the action tonight.
Pittsburgh claimed victory in its first two preseason contests, scoring exactly 27 points in each outing. Head coach Mike Tomlin said his starters will play an undetermined amount of time against Atlanta, who have a win and a tie in its two preseason contests. The Falcons have not said who exactly will start, or how long the first unit will play.
Those decisions will directly impact the way this game shakes out, and we discuss how that affects your betting strategy in our Steelers vs. Falcons preseason NFL picks and predictions for Thursday, August 24.
Steelers vs Falcons odds
Steelers vs Falcons predictions
The fact that Tomlin said he’s going to keep his starters out “until we have a level of satisfaction on both sides of the ball” is bad news for those betting on Atlanta. Kenny Pickett has looked good so far this preseason, developing an early chemistry with new tight end Pat Freiermuth.
In the win over Buffalo last week, Pickett attempted just four passes but completed three for 43 yards, including a 25-yard touchdown to Freiermuth. This preseason, he’s completed all but two of his 11 attempts with a pair of scores.
The entire starting offense has looked quite solid so far, with three touchdowns in their three drives. The longer they’re on the field, the worse things will be for an Atlanta defense that wasn’t overly impressive against Cincinnati’s backup gunslingers last week.
But there is also the question of just how much the Falcons will have Desmond Ridder and first-round pick Bijan Robinson on the field. The belief is that their older starters won’t play, which means they’ll likely have backup linemen in on offense.
It’s unlikely the Falcons will want to risk Ridder behind a line that might not be able to protect him, especially with Pittsburgh’s first-unit defense getting the start. That should allow Pittsburgh to jump out to an early lead, as they’ve done in their two previous games.
Once Pickett is off the field, it’ll become a battle of two players trying to lock down the job as his backup. Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph know this is their last chance to impress, and both will be trying to play their best game of the preseason. That should lead to the Steelers continuing to chase points, and both are better than who Atlanta will have behind Ridder.
That’s why I’m taking Pittsburgh to cover the 4.5-point spread. Tomlin doesn’t waste preseason games, and his Steelers have won 13 of their last 16 exhibitions. They’re the better team with better depth at quarterback, and they should win easily.
My best bet: Steelers -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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